Monday, January 14, 2013

A Shilling Tale of Deception

A small crowd of people huddled together at dusk on Alexander Platz in East Berlin staring at the ground watching intently. A few were scanning the passersby looking for police. Every so often there would be a small groan, or an excited yelp to declare triumph! It was illegal, of course. These con-men stole money from the innocent just as surely as if they'd put a knife to your throat, except that their theft was non-violent...usually. I mean, if someone got upset enough and attacked, then the con-man was sure to have his back up within easy reach. They always worked in groups, but I didn't know that at the time. Who was who? Hard to tell. But you can be sure the man with three hats had a lot of friends, even if he didn't use hats.

When I saw them, they always used match stick boxes and the ball was always just a little wad of paper or a rolled up candy wrapper, but it worked plenty well anyway. I'd never seen someone work that game so well before. Surely you have seen it at one time or another.  In cartoons, they always use big cups or bowls. The person working the bowls has three of them and only one ball and is supposed to move the bowls around so quickly that the onlooker loses track of where the ball is. When asked to choose, the onlooker gets it wrong because the three bowls moved around so quickly. It is always drawn in the cartoons as though the bowls are just a blur, but no one can move bowls so quickly that they become a blur.

The funny thing about the three hat game is that the bowls don't move quickly at all, and they don't have to be moved around very many times, either...because the trick isn't in the speed of the bowls. The beauty of using matchboxes and a little wad of paper is that the paper is small. When I first saw them playing, I had thought that the whole trick was in that they used cups with velcro in them, or that the game was played on a table and the ball was dropped out from under the cups by being moved over the edge of the table. But in Berlin, they play on the ground, and they'll let you inspect the match boxes to show you that there isn't any velcro. There is no trick (as far as you can see). And, sometimes people win! So, it must be an honest game, right?

That's where the shill's come in. The guy moving the boxes takes the ball out from under the box when he first puts the box down. Then he puts it back when he lifts up the box he wants the ball to be under. The speed comes in how quickly he sweeps his finger under the box to get the ball out, or in the angles. I'm not sure. I've never been able to do it convincingly (although I’ve never been interested in putting a lot of time into getting good at it). All I know is that if you watch them play for a while, the people who lose look like they must be complete morons. And, when the people win, it doesn't look like they're any geniuses, either. The boxes and ball are just not moving that quickly. So, it looks like a piece of cake. But, somehow, when I tried it, even though I was sure I knew where the ball was, it wasn't there when the guy turned the box over. One of the onlookers shook his head and told me I needed to step on the box with the ball under it and turn it over myself so that the con-man couldn't pull the ball out when he turned the box over. But, even though I was sure I had the right box, the ball still wasn't there. What about the people who won? Those are the shills. And the people who lose who look like complete morons? Those are often shills, too. The con-men work in groups: they have the spotters, the bodyguards, the people who are designated to lose and those chosen to win. Of course, it is all fixed ahead of time so that the innocent onlooker thinks only stupid people lose and you don't have to be that smart to win. So, playing should be easy money...except that it isn't.

Now, if you were brought up being taught about all the ways people can con each other, then maybe you'll think people like me are just really stupid. Anyone who doesn't already know how that type of game is played deserves to lose their money. But, that isn't the point. In college, I earned two degrees with three majors in four years. Two of those majors are in natural sciences with lots of math. I'm not stupid.

A few years ago, I was bitten by a dog. It didn't take my arm off or anything drastic like that, but it did leave a scar. The funny thing about it was that I saw the dog coming at me. I had been in a stand off with the dog for several minutes and it didn't attack until after I thought it had lost interest in me and I started to back away. If you've read enough of my other blog posts, you might know that I spent several years practicing Aikido (a Japanese martial art) when I was younger. Before that, I had spent several years learning western style fencing. Before that, I had spent several years as a wrestler. I've had my fair share of fights between the three of those sports. I'm used to things coming at me quickly. I don't say any of that to brag, but rather to emphasize that until you've seen how quickly a strong dog can move when it wants to, it is hard to even imagine how fast it is. I saw the dog coming at me. I pushed it away to try to protect myself. I never saw or felt it bite me. But after I pushed it away, I was bleeding.

The human eye can only see things that take longer than about 1/20th of a second. That's it. Any faster than that and things just disappear: a finger under a matchbox or a dog snapping its mouth shut.

2Cr 5:7    (For we walk by faith, not by sight:)
Hab 2:4    ... the just shall live by his faith.
Pro 12:20 Deceit is in the heart of those who devise evil, But counselors of peace have joy.
Prov 14:12 There is a way that seems right to a man, but in the end it leads to death.

What counselors are you listening to in your life? Is there someone by you telling you to just step on the match box and you’ll win, or do you work harder than that to figure out who to trust? Do you trust your eyes as the final arbiter of truth? Is seeing believing, or is there more to it? I'd love to hear your comments.